Breaking the persisting supply–demand cycle: a critical review of water development and conflict in the Zayandeh-Rud basin

ABSTRACT Endorheic basins are more sensitive to changes in the water balance than other basins. Therefore, human activities can create critical conditions. This study examines the complex interactions between water management practices and their various effects in the iconic Zayandeh-Rud basin, focusing on the unintended consequences of water infrastructure development, such as reservoirs and inter-basin transfers. The research highlights phenomena known as the ‘reservoir effect’ and ‘rebound effect’ where the construction of reservoirs or inter-basin water transfers that were intended to alleviate water shortages led to increased water demand, exacerbating the problem they were meant to solve. It shows how these phenomena have led to an increase in cultivated areas and the development of irrigation systems. The study explores broader impacts on agriculture, groundwater depletion, ecological degradation, and the economic, social, political, institutional, and organizational consequences, emphasizing the need for a more integrated and sustainable approach to water resource management. It can be argued that social conflicts have led to a greater focus on the conditions of the Gavkhoni wetland as a sensitive indicator of sustainable water and land use in the basin.