Rural Livelihoods and Income Resilience in Northern Nigeria During Covid-19: A Generalized Heckman and Generalized Ordered Probit Approach

Purpose: This study examined the effect of livelihood sources on rural income and its sustainability in northern Nigeria, particularly within the context of conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic. It aimed to determine how different livelihood engagements influence income levels and income sustainability among rural households. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study utilized panel data from Rounds 1 and 2 of the Data in Emergency (DIEM) surveys conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2021 and 2022. The analysis employed Ordered Probit, Generalized Ordered Probit, Tobit, and Generalized Heckman regression models to assess the determinants of income changes and sustainability across livelihood categories. Findings: The results revealed that crop farming (35.74%) and livestock farming (34.27%) were the dominant livelihood sources. About 32.94% of households experienced slight income reductions, while 30.30% reported slight income increases. The Generalized Heckman results indicated that income significantly increased (p