Research of Berth Occupancy at a Sea Passenger Port Based on a Simulation Model Accounting for Regional Features and Stochastic External Influences

The article addresses the topical problem of forming big data to support decision-making and forecasting the development of maritime passenger ports based on data obtained from a digital twin of a seaport, taking into account regional features. Maritime passenger ports and terminals of the Baltic Sea were selected as the object of study. The necessity of multi-scenario modeling of varying intensities of cruise and ferry vessel calls is substantiated, with consideration given to berth characteristics, operational constraints, and decision-making limitations when processing navigation-period data. To address this problem, a new digital transport model is proposed that enables effective analysis and optimization of cruise and ferry vessel servicing processes. An algorithm and a novel approach to the analysis of fixed and stochastic inbound vessel flows are developed, taking into account service priority. The study employs multi-scenario simulation methods based on different traffic intensities and regional characteristics of port infrastructure. The research is based on an analysis of real operational data from Baltic Sea passenger ports, which allows evaluation of the proposed model under conditions of maximum port load, using the ports of Warnemünde (Rostock) and Kiel as case studies. Special attention is given to the analysis of port infrastructure utilization intensity and optimization of resource allocation. A simulation model is presented to represent the operation of a multi-priority queueing system in which service requests arrive both according to a priority schedule and randomly. The boundary operating conditions of two Baltic Sea passenger ports for accommodating vessel calls beyond the planned schedule under stochastic influences are experimentally determined. The modeling is based on actual port infrastructure data and planned cruise ship arrival schedules. The proposed software module of the digital port model enables the generation of simulation data to support both operational management decision-making at maritime passenger ports and long-term development forecasting.