LAND USE SIMULATION TO FOSTER ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OF THE RANU PANE VOLCANIC LAKE, INDONESIA

Sedimentation in the Ranu Pane Volcanic Lake (RPVL) has increased due to land use change (LUC) in the surrounding area and the considerable outflow of materials from the Semeru volcanic eruption. The continued sedimentation will have negative consequences for humans and the sustainability of the RPVL. This research was aimed at building a LUC simulation model for 2024-2036 using a land change modeler (LCM) with the Logistic Regression/Markov Chain algorithm and a built-up land scenario based on historical land use (LU) data to investigate future sedimentation. The secondary data were mosaics from Planet Labs® Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) imagery, roads, rivers, slopes, elevation, rainfall, and soil types. The primary data collected through fieldwork for validation of the LU were processed using remote sensing and the Geographic Information System (GIS). The simulation model for 2024-2036 was built using the LU data for 2016, 2020, and 2024. The LCM model detected that there would be a decrease in forest area but an increase in built-up land and agriculture in the study area between 2024–2036. The findings indicate that the increased land area and agriculture around Mount Semeru will lead to further sedimentation. The study findings can help planners understand LU patterns and their impacts, which can be useful in designing sustainable lake development strategies and management plans for the area.