Grey-Zone Warfare in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

The contemporary international security environment is increasingly shaped by competition that unfolds below the threshold of open armed conflict. Commonly described as grey-zone warfare, this mode of contestation relies on ambiguity, deniability, and gradual escalation to achieve strategic objectives while avoiding direct military confrontation. At the same time, artificial intelligence has emerged as a transformative technology that reshapes how power is exercised across political, informational, cyber, and physical domains. This paper argues that artificial intelligence functions as a structural enabler of grey-zone warfare by lowering operational costs, enhancing precision and persistence, and obscuring attribution and intent. Rather than merely augmenting existing tactics, AI fundamentally alters the logic of sub-threshold conflict, making continuous competition both feasible and strategically attractive. Through conceptual analysis and an examination of real-world incidents, particularly AI-enabled information and cyber operations in the Russia–Ukraine context prior to 2022, this study demonstrates how AI intensifies grey-zone dynamics while undermining traditional deterrence, legal accountability, and strategic stability. The paper concludes by assessing the broader implications of AI-driven grey-zone warfare for global security governance and the future of conflict.