Trend in collection of Tendu leaves in Kondagaon Chhattisgarh

Tendu leaves (Diospyros melanoxylon) are an important non-timber forest product in Chhattisgarh, providing seasonal employment and income to a large tribal population. The present study examines the trend in Tendu leaves collection in Kondagaon district of Chhattisgarh using time series data. Straight-line, polynomial regression models up to the fourth order, and exponential regression models were fitted using the least squares method. The adequacy of the models was evaluated through ANOVA, F-tests, p-values, and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicated that none of the fitted models were statistically significant at the 5% or 1% levels. However, the fourth order polynomial regression model showed the highest explanatory power with an R² value of 0.437, explaining 43.7% of the variation in Tendu leaves collection. The fitted curve showed a moderate agreement between observed and estimated values. The study suggests that factors other than time influence Tendu leaves collection, and inclusion of additional variables may improve future forecasting and analysis.