Transnational economic and security engagements in Africa and their implications for Sustainable Development Goals

This study examines the interplay between transnational economic and security engagements in Africa and their implications for the ‍Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It focuses on Chinese economic initiatives and U.S. security assistance, assessing how these external interventions influence SDGs outcomes. Sustainable development is conceptualized along social and economic dimensions, with social indicators including poverty headcount (SDG 1), access to justice, and judicial system performance (SDG 16), and economic indicators encompassing gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and inclusive growth (SDG 8). The study investigates the extent to which Chinese loans and U.S. security programs, including military training, reinforce or offset each other’s impact on sustainable development. Employing panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), Dumitrescu-Hurlin (DH), and Toda-Yamamoto (TY) techniques, the study evaluates both short- and long-term effects and explores causal relationships over the period from 2005 to 2023. Findings indicate that U.S. security assistance strengthens access to justice and promotes economic growth, whereas Chinese loans yield mixed outcomes on poverty and inequality. Causality analyses reveal bidirectional interactions between Chinese economic engagements and U.S. security interventions, highlighting their interdependent dynamics. Human capital development emerges as a pivotal driver of long-term sustainability, while exchange rate volatility undermines progress. Household consumption supports economic growth but does not substantially reduce poverty. The study underscores the importance of a holistic and context-sensitive approach to foreign engagement in Africa, emphasizing the integration of economic, social, and security dimensions. Policies that enhance institutional capacity, foster human capital, and coordinate economic and security initiatives are critical to advancing sustainable development across the continent.