Studying the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution and Biology of Vectors-Borne Diseases in Iran Data Analysis and Environmental Modelling

Climate change profoundly affects the ecology and distribution of disease vectors such as Aedes aegypti, the main mosquito responsible for transmitting dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. This study assesses how projected climatic shifts will alter vector habitat suitability across Iran, a country with diverse ecological and climatic zones. A total of 124 geo-referenced occurrence records were compiled from field surveys, surveillance data, literature, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from WorldClim 2.1, together with human population density and satellite-derived indices (NDVI, NDWI, and TMI), were used as predictors. Species distribution modeling was performed using MaxEnt 3.4.4 under two future climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emission) for 2050 and 2070. The model performed strongly (AUC = 0.93; TSS = 0.81). The most influential predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and population density. Current suitable habitats are concentrated in southern and coastal provinces such as Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, and Fars. Future projections indicate substantial northward and altitudinal expansion, increasing total suitable areas by 32% under SSP2-4.5 and 48% under SSP5-8.5. These results demonstrate that climate change will markedly expand the potential range of Aedes aegypti in Iran, increasing the likelihood of arboviral disease emergence in new ecological zones. Adaptive surveillance, climate-based early-warning systems, and targeted vector control strategies are urgently needed to mitigate the growing public-health risks associated with a warming climate.