[1]¿p#1 newcommands Title: Range redistribution under climate change reshapes connectivity without genetic fragmentation in a Himalayan carnivore

[1]¿p#1 newcommands Climate change and accelerating land-use transformation are expected to profoundly alter habitat suitability, connectivity, and genetic structure of wide-ranging mammals, particularly in high-elevation ecosystems. We evaluated climate-driven changes in habitat suitability and population genetic structure of the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in the western Himalaya. We integrated species occurrence records and individual level nuclear DNA data with environmental predictors to examine climate-driven changes in distribution, genetic diversity, and population structure. Environmental variables were first screened using MaxEnt to identify a parsimonious set of predictors, which were then incorporated into an ensemble species distribution modelling framework comprising eleven modelling algorithms to predict current habitat suitability. Future distributions were projected under low- (RCP 2.6) and high-emission (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios for the mid-century (2050s) and late-century (2070s). In parallel, genetic and environmental data were integrated within a hierarchical Bayesian framework (POPS) to infer spatial patterns of genetic structure and assess their stability under future climate change. Current habitat suitability was primarily governed by climatic variables, with annual mean temperature emerging as the most influential predictor. Future projections indicated significant redistribution of suitable habitat, characterized by high stability under low-emission scenarios but pronounced spatial turnover and net habitat loss under high-emission scenarios by the 2070s. Genetic analyses revealed weak population structuring and widespread admixture across the landscape, indicating high levels of connectivity among Asiatic black bears. Nevertheless, projected shifts in habitat suitability, particularly toward higher elevations, may alter historical and existing connectivity patterns and potentially disrupt existing gene flow pathways. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating habitat suitability projections with population genetic analyses to identify climate-driven risks to connectivity and genetic diversity. Incorporating future habitat dynamics into conservation planning will be essential for maintaining long-term population viability of Asiatic black bears in the Himalaya under ongoing climate change.