The Golden Dome and Beyond: Assessing the Future of U.S. Space-Based Infrared Sensors

This study evaluates the fundamental shift in the United States space-based missile defense architecture from a reliance on a limited number of high-altitude satellites to the deployment of large constellations in Low Earth Orbit. Driven by the enactment of Public Law 119-21 and the proposed "Golden Dome" system, the study examines how and whether space-based infrared sensors are evolving to detect and track modern threats, such as Hypersonic Glide Vehicles and Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems. While legacy systems like the Space-Based Infrared System provided early warning, their high altitude and sensors' technology hindered the spatial resolution required for precise fire-control capabilities. The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture should improve tracking by orbiting closer to Earth and utilizing sensors on multiple satellites to enable 3D triangulation via stereo-vision. However, the technical efficacy of these systems remains difficult to verify due to classified sensor specifications and inconclusive experimental results.