Conflict-Induced Ship Traffic Disruptions Constrain Cloud Sensitivity to Stricter Marine Pollution Regulations

Starting in November 2023, the Houthi militia occupying northern Yemen has attacked ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint on the route between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. As a result, cargo ship traffic through the Red Sea has plummeted, with ships instead taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. The increase in traffic in the southeast Atlantic Ocean and decrease in the Red Sea is readily apparent in satellite retrievals of column nitrogen dioxide. Within the stratocumulus deck covering much of the southeast Atlantic, a previously detectible cloud microphysical perturbation due to ship pollution had largely disappeared following the International Maritime Organization’s sulfur-limiting regulations in 2020 but returns during 2024 due to the increase in ship traffic despite the lower cloud brightening efficacy per ship. Because nitrogen dioxide pollution per unit of fuel oil burned is not affected by switching to low-sulfur fuel or installing sulfur scrubbers, quantifying the ratio of shipping-enhanced cloud droplet number and nitrogen dioxide concentrations before and after the fuel sulfur limits went into effect provides a strong constraint on the cloud changes from the regulations. We find that the ~80% reduction in sulfur emissions leads to a 66% (95% confidence: 25-88%) reduction in the increase in cloud droplet number concentration per unit marine fuel oil burned.