The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in modulating U.S. hazardous convective weather

Hazardous convective weather (HCW), severe storms producing tornadoes, hail, or strong winds, poses a significant threat to life and property in the United States (U.S.) east of the Rocky Mountains. Modes of climate variability, including the Madden Julian Oscillation on intraseasonal timescales and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on interannual timescales, are known to influence U.S. HCW. However, the influence of low frequency sea surface temperature variability has received minimal attention. We examine the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on springtime HCW over the eastern U.S. The positive (negative) PDO phase is associated with negative (positive) anomalies of convective available potential energy, 0-6 km wind shear, and the number of severe weather days. This relationship extends to NOAA Storm Event database tornado, thunderstorm wind, and hail reports, highlighting decadal variations in North Pacific sea surface temperatures as a potential source of predictability for U.S. HCW.