From the ashes of VEI: Decoding explosivity, mass eruption rate and hazards in real time

Ash-producing volcanic eruptions are a major natural hazard. The explosivity of these eruptions has been described for decades by a semi-quantitative “Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)” based on a number of interdependent factors (eruption duration, volume of ejected material, eruptive column height, tropospheric and stratospheric injection, and many qualitative descriptors), most of which could only be assessed after eruption had ceased. The utility of this semi-quantitative index has been questioned since then, yet its common usage persists. We suggest that if VEI is to be used in the future, it may as well be an index that can be determined in real time during an eruption, and one that strictly reflects eruption intensity. We find that the same value for the “traditional” Volcanic Explosivity Index of past eruptions can be estimated in real time during an eruption, based solely on eruption column height. This approach is not intended to replace the traditional VEI scale or supplant more detailed mechanistic approaches to mass eruption rate (MER); rather it can be used to provide a more immediate way of calculating the VEI and linking to MER, in real time while an eruption is taking place. As such, if the easily observed height can be measured, both MER and VEI can be estimated. This may facilitate emergency response by aviation, hazard management, and others to mitigate societal impact of hazardous eruptions. This scheme can be inverted to use volume-based VEI of ancient eruptions to roughly retrodict unobserved column height for key historic and pre-historic eruptions. Further, ash particle morphology reflects explosivity in terms of decompression rate at the vent of unobserved eruptions. With sufficiently rapid decompression, this could result in an observable bi-modal bubble size distribution. The morphology of ash particles reveals a threshold between VEI 3 and 4, above which there is sufficiently rapid decompression to trigger a second nucleation event near the vent.