Recent salinification in the Southern Adriatic: remote drivers and local impact

We investigate the remote drivers and local impact of the recent anomalous high salinity values observed in the Southern Adriatic by using a multi-platform data approach that combines in situ measurements, satellite products and numerical model reanalysis. First, we quantify the relative importance of local atmospheric forcing and remote advective processes in shaping the decadal salinity evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean that in turn affects the Adriatic Sea. In fact, in the Levantine and Cretan basins, strong evaporation links a dramatic warming of the area, extreme marine--atmospheric heatwaves, and circulation changes in the Ionian Sea, that drives the formation and persistence of anomalous saltier surface and intermediate waters in the area. These high salinity Levantine-origin waters flow into the Adriatic Sea through the Otranto Strait, contributing to the anomalous salinity values observed in the area and enhancing dense-water formation processes. Our results support the hypothesis that the recent Adriatic salinification is primarily controlled by basin-scale thermohaline circulation changes rather than pure local atmospheric forcing, with important implications for the Eastern Mediterranean deep-water formation, biogeochemical cycles, and the sensitivity of the system to ongoing climate change.