Precipitation, runoff and soil moisture anomalies indicate that Canada's worst drought in at least 150 years still persists

The Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) shows that substantial dry conditions persist across Canada since the drought of 2023. We analyze these dry conditions within a longer historical context using two reanalyses - European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ERA5-Land (1950-2025, 0.1 degree) and bias-corrected Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3, 1836-2015, 1 degree). Using time series data on four hydrological variables, precipitation (P), runoff (R), potential evaporation (PE) and soil moisture (SM), standardized drought indices from monthly to inter-annual (36-month) time spans were computed. Analyses indicate that the drought of 2023 is the worst in the last 150 years (1876-2025) both for Canada as a whole and also for its individual provinces, for all four variables and different time spans. Canada’s latest long-term seasonal forecasts indicate that the P deficit accrued since 2023 may not be completely eliminated in 2026.