Sea states with enhanced rogue wave probabilities: Observations from wave buoys in UK coastal waters

Rogue waves are unusually large, surface gravity waves that pose significant risks to maritime safety, offshore infrastructure, and coastal environments. Accurate quality-controlled field measurements are a key component in understanding rogue wave formation, which provides a basis for prediction (i.e. forecast development). Here, we further develop the Free Ocean Wave Dataset (FOWD) processing tool in order to complete the first wave-by-wave analysis of the Channel Coastal Observatory (CCO) data archive, comprising a total of 510 years of measurements from 40 buoys (9-60 m) around the coast of England and Wales. After quality control and filtering, the FOWD-CCO dataset contained 162 million individual wave measurements, with 12,445 rogue waves and 14,167 rogue crests. Using a Bayesian univariate analysis, we show that rogue wave probability is strongly modulated by crest-trough correlation, while rogue crest probability is correlated with skewness, consistent with previous findings. In a site-specific analysis, we compare our observed exceedance curves with candidate distributions, finding a close agreement between wave heights and wave crests (after a correction method is applied) across most sea states. Analysis of local environmental conditions provide evidence that wind forcing enhances rogue crest probability. The FOWD-CCO dataset provides a useful new resource for coastal wave research.