Retail Bottled Water Sales Behavior Under Extreme Events

Over the past two decades, bottled water sales have steadily increased, becoming a widely consumed daily necessity for many individuals. Beyond everyday consumption, bottled water plays an essential role during extreme natural and human-made events. Despite its critical importance during such events, comprehensive evaluations of purchasing patterns across diverse types of extreme events remain limited. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationships among bottled water sales, extreme events, and relevant contextual variables.These relationships are quantified using key characteristics of bottled water sales during extreme events: (1) lag time, (2) duration, and (3) event sales. The findings show that the empirical model effectively detects measurable impacts of extreme events. Approximately 7.3\% of bottled water sales from 2019 to 2023 across 54 xAOC-SMM market areas are event-related. Extreme events significantly increase per-capita sales ranging from 0.31 to 4.10 gallons, with effects varying by event type and severity. Event type and impacted population size are the primary drivers of sales. Lag times between event onset and retail sales differ by event type, with shorter lags for forecastable events such as tropical storms and winter storms compared to biological events. Event sales and duration are greatest for biological events. Comparisons between event sales and typical daily consumption suggest that bottled water becomes a critical source of drinking water during extreme events. This work highlights the importance of understanding how extreme events shape retail bottled water sales and provides valuable insights into how consumer responses change during periods of disruption.