Premature Mortality From Non-Communicable Diseases in Latin America and The Caribbean: A Time-Series Analysis of Progress Toward SDG 3.4

Premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remains a major public health challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean, threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4, which calls for a one-third reduction in premature NCD mortality. We examine trends and future trajectories of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases among adults aged 30–70 years using monthly World Bank data from 2000 to 2024. The ARIMA modeling framework is employed to capture both long-run persistence and short-run fluctuations in mortality dynamics. Estimation results reveal strong persistence in premature NCD mortality, as evidenced by a positive and statistically significant autoregressive coefficient, alongside a negative and significant moving-average component indicating partial shock correction. Model diagnostics confirm stationarity and invertibility, supporting the reliability of forecasts. Projections indicate a gradual decline in premature NCD mortality, converging toward approximately 13.32% by 2046. While this trend reflects continued improvement, the projected level remains unacceptably high and insufficient to fully achieve SDG 3.4 targets. The findings underscore the urgency of strengthening NCD prevention, early diagnosis, and health-system capacity to accelerate mortality reductions in the region.