DETERMINANTS OF ELECTORAL SUCCESS IN BRAZIL: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON PUBLIC DATA FROM THE TSE (2006–2022)

This study presents an exploratory analysis of the profile of candidates and the factors associated with electoral success in Brazilian elections between 2006 and 2022. Using data made available by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), variables such as gender, age, education level, declared assets, campaign expenditures, incumbency, and region of candidacy were examined. The research aims to understand how socioeconomic, demographic, and political characteristics influence the chances of electoral victory, taking into account the transformations that occurred in the national political landscape throughout the analyzed period. Descriptive and inferential statistical methods, including tests of association and mean comparison, were employed to identify patterns and inequalities in the distribution of electoral success. In addition, the implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the broader debate on representativeness and equity within the Brazilian political system. By integrating individual candidate variables with contextual indicators such as the Human Development Index (HDI) of the federative units, the analysis provides a comprehensive view of electoral dynamics and the structural barriers that may affect access to elected positions. The results contribute to a better understanding of the relationships between personal and contextual factors in electoral performance and offer empirical insights for reflections on democratic consolidation and political participation in contemporary Brazil.