Do more women majoring in STEM subjects bridge the gender pay gap in the EU? Implications for building a competitive, socially sustainable economy

Research background: The gender pay gap (GPG) remains a persistent issue across the EU, with structural factors such as horizontal segregation—particularly in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) industries—contributing to labour market disparities. Despite women increasingly attaining tertiary education, their underrepresentation in STEM careers persists, raising questions about how higher education pathways intersect with the GPG. Specifically, we examine the structural linkages between educational pathways and occupational sorting in STEM-intensive sectors, where it is widely observed that women with STEM degrees do not work in these fields as frequently as men. Purpose of the article: This article aims to identify key determinants of the GPG linked to higher education, with a specific focus on STEM university majors. By analysing the relationship between tertiary education trends and wage gaps, the study seeks to clarify how educational pathways systematically shape occupational segregation and, consequently, the GPG. We examine these dynamics across 27 EU Member States, emphasizing the role of higher educational attainment and gender dynamics in STEM fields as part of broader institutional patterns rather than isolated national cases. Methods: We employ the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method as an effective approach for modelling uncertainty across a large model space and providing a reliable measure of the importance of the considered determinants. This method is applied to assess the impact of variables such as gender-specific STEM graduation rates on the GPG, ensuring reliable identification of key drivers. Findings & value added: We conclude that STEM tertiary education plays an important role in shaping the GPG, not only through participation rates but through its interaction with labour market structures. Our results suggest that gendered asymmetries in advanced qualifications and early-career entry points may reinforce persistent wage inequalities, even among highly educated cohorts. These findings contribute new insights by demonstrating that educational expansion alone is insufficient to ensure wage convergence if educational trajectories remain horizontally segregated. By highlighting the structural role of higher education in shaping occupational sorting, this study advances current debates on the institutional roots of gender pay inequality and offers implications relevant to a broad set of advanced and emerging economies.