Export Led Growth Hypothesis on 8 ASEAN Countries

This study aims to examine the relevance of the export-led growth model in eight countries in the ASEAN region. Panel data analysis was used to examine the corellation between the variables of export growth and gross domestic product, supported by control variables such as exchange rates, consumer price index, real interest rates, and foreign exchange reserves. The Fixed Effect Model was selected as the best analytical model for this study. The data used in this research was sourced from the World Bank, utilizing data from 8 countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, and Timor-Leste, covering the period from 2014 to 2023. The study results support the ELG hypothesis, meaning that exports have a significant positive impact on economic growth in the 8 ASEAN countries. Exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves also play a significant positive role in driving GDP. Meanwhile, the CPI does not have a significant impact on GDP. On the other hand, real interest rates have a significant negative effect on GDP. The implications of this study highlight the importance of product diversification and value addition to enhance the competitiveness of export products for the eight ASEAN countries, thereby reducing dependence on oil and gas commodities and raw materials. Additionally, the implementation of responsive monetary policies to global market dynamics is necessary to maintain economic stability and achieve sustainable growth.