Intra-EU Trade Share Dynamics under Sequential Shocks: Evidence from Eurostat Data

Abstract Countries in the European Union (EU) trade with each other constantly, but big crises can cause financial trouble to spread easily across borders. This study looked at EU trade data from 2013 to 2024 to see how the system handled the COVID-19 pandemic and the war/energy crisis. Surprisingly, these major events didn’t break the trading system or cause sudden disruptions. Instead, trade slowly became more spread out among different countries over time rather than just being controlled by a few wealthy ones. Most countries kept their usual trading positions—with Romania showing great resilience by keeping steady exports and making minor import gains after 2022. Ultimately, the study shows that while the EU trade network is highly stable, sequential crises still slowly shift who relies on whom, meaning leaders must monitor these connections closely to manage future financial risks.