Heat Demand in Non-Residential Buildings: Renovation and Subsidy Effects

Abstract Considering Europe's green agenda and established climate goals, discussions often center around energy efficiency and the responsible use of energy. Building renovation is recognized as a crucial step towards achieving these objectives. While most renovation discussions focus on residential buildings, the non-residential sector is frequently overlooked. In Riga, non-residential properties account for 25 % of the heat demand in buildings connected to the district heating system. This brings forth the concern that the contribution of non-residential buildings to reduce heat demand and the necessity for renovation is not adequately evaluated. This research utilizes available statistical data and system dynamics modelling to address this issue. The results show that the total annual heat demand may decrease by 27 %, while the alternative heating may be increasing by 5 % in 2050 relative to 2023. Using the currently available financial funds, renovating up to 89 % of municipal buildings and 91 % of educational institutions in state facilities is possible.