The limit of monetary activity for the Russian economy

Subject. The limit of monetary activity for the Russian economy. Objectives. Determine the limit of monetary activity for the Russian economy. Methods. General scientific and special economic and mathematical methods were applied. Results. A set of key factors determining the limit of monetary activity for the Russian economy has been identified. It is shown that the growth of the money supply is exponential, with households and non-financial organizations making the main contribution, but the latter have weak business activity. The limit of monetary activity can be reached due to the exhaustion of the lending potential of the population and a decrease in business investment activity. The upper and lower limits of the real key rate are highlighted, when lending becomes inaccessible to businesses and the public, and also leads to inflation and devaluation of the ruble. Lending to the economy is growing exponentially with a bias towards business, increasing the risks of bankruptcy of enterprises. Retail lending is slowing down due to high interest rates. The limit of monetary activity is due to the impossibility of further debt buildup without increasing the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises and liquidity compression at a high key interest rate. Excessive growth of corporate debt leads to financial instability. The stock market is volatile, and companies are actively issuing bonds, increasing their debt exposure. Conclusions. The study helps to understand the mechanism of the monetary system and identify risk factors, as well as identify effective tools for its regulation.