Monetary policy transmission analysis

Subject. The process of transmission of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Objectives. To evaluate the effectiveness and identify the functioning features of transmission channels based on an analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic and financial indicators covering various phases of the economic cycle. Methods. The research methodology is based on the application of special economic and mathematical methods of statistical and visual data analysis, construction of trend models and estimation of approximation coefficients to determine the strength of trends. Results. A change in monetary policy regimes (restraining and stimulating) has been identified in response to changing macroeconomic conditions. It has been established that the interest rate channel and the bank lending channel are the main and most effective transmission channels. A structural shift has been revealed in the operation of the stock market channel, expressed in the transition to the dominance of debt instruments over stocks in value terms against the background of increased volatility of the stock market. The key limitation of the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism is revealed – the conflict between the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the stimulating fiscal policy, which creates a pro-inflationary background and makes it difficult to control inflation. The transmission mechanism of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy is workable, but its ultimate effectiveness largely depends on the coordination of monetary and fiscal authorities. Conclusions. The results of the study can be used by key economic agents to make informed decisions in the field of politics, financial management and investment activities.