Forecasting the bankruptcy probability of major coal industry enterprises in Russia

Subject. This article discusses forecasting the bankruptcy probability for key coal industry enterprises in Russia. Objectives. The article aims to find or develop an effective method for assessing the bankruptcy probability for Russian coal industry city-forming enterprises, with a high predictive power of over 80 percent. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, coefficient method, MDA and logit models, decision tree. Results. The article examines well-known bankruptcy probability models for their applicability to key coal mining enterprises in Russia. It also studies author-developed models using three different modeling techniques, and assesses them. Conclusions. The application of various modeling techniques leads to the selection of the same financial ratios as significant variables for bankruptcy in leading coal industry enterprises. The presented author-developed models are capable of predicting bankruptcy of coal companies in the short term with high accuracy, but only retrospectively. To assess future risks, it is necessary to use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.