Modeling the market capitalization of a public company as a method of assessing its investment attractiveness

Subject. The study of methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of public companies, the modeling of market capitalization is considered as the main method. Objectives. Development and testing of a methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of a company based on modeling its market capitalization. Methods. The methodological basis is based on general scientific principles and research methods: abstraction, generalization of approaches to assessing the investment attractiveness of a company and modeling market capitalization. The methods of analysis, synthesis, statistical modeling, systematization and generalization of the obtained results are used. Results. The main approaches to assessing the investment attractiveness of public companies are investigated: calculating the business value, analyzing financial coefficients, estimating multipliers, and modeling market capitalization. A methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of a company based on market capitalization modeling has been developed, which includes three stages. At the first stage, the company's financial model is specified and the main factors of the external and internal environment that determine capitalization and dividends are identified. At the second stage, capitalization and dividends are modeled based on one-factor regression models, which are then combined into an ensemble of models. At the third stage, the projected total return on shareholders is determined, the return on risk is calculated using the Monte Carlo method, and on this basis, the conclusion about the investment attractiveness of the company is substantiated. Conclusions. Testing the methodology on the data of PAO PhosАgro, one of the most effective representatives of the Russian chemical industry, allowed us to draw conclusions about the high investment attractiveness of the company due to its efficiency and protected competitive advantages, as well as an acceptable level of risk of investing in the company.