Analysis of inflationary processes in Russia at the present stage

Subject. Factors and dynamics of inflationary processes in the Russian economy in 2022–2025. Objectives. To carry out a theoretical and econometric analysis of inflation factors, identify key drivers of inflationary processes and assess the relative importance of monetary and non-monetary factors. Methods. Theoretical and empirical methods were used: comparative, system and factor analysis, modeling, graphical analysis, induction and deduction. Results. The predominance of non-monetary factors of inflation has been revealed. The statistical significance of inflationary expectations of enterprises, the dynamics of lending to the population and the ruble exchange rate has been established. The hypothesis of the formation of an inflationary spiral initiated by the supply shock in 2022 and supported by stimulating fiscal policy and a positive output gap in 2023–2024 has been confirmed. The role of monetary factors turned out to be secondary. Conclusions. The main causes of inflation at the present stage are stimulating fiscal policy in the context of an overheating economy, stable inflationary expectations of manufacturers and limited effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy against the background of concessional lending programs. A sustainable reduction in inflation requires an integrated approach combining coordination of monetary and fiscal measures, stimulating supply and curbing pro-inflationary budget expenditures.