Comprehensive assessment of the financial stability of subsurface use enterprises: Integration of ESG factors, geological indicators and scenario modeling

Subject. Modern approaches to assessing the financial stability of subsurface use enterprises in conditions of high volatility of commodity markets, increased environmental requirements and technological transformations. Objectives. Development and scientific substantiation of an integrated financial stability assessment model capable of taking into account not only financial indicators, but also geological, operational, ESG factors, as well as strategic management flexibility; improving forecasting accuracy, adequacy of risk analysis and practical applicability of assessment in conditions of uncertainty. Methods. System analysis, scenario modeling, stress testing and comparative analysis were used. The methodology includes the integration of key industry indicators (stock-to-production ratio, break-even price, debt coverage ratio) with financial and ESG metrics. The real options method was used to account for the flexibility of project management. The analysis is based on a comparison of data from conditional and real companies, which makes it possible to assess the sensitivity of indicators to changes in the market. Results. It is shown that the combined approach increases the reliability of the sustainability assessment by including long-term factors and intangible risks. Analytical tools have been developed, including scenario matrices and comparative tables, to identify financial stability thresholds and assess companies' vulnerability to price shocks. Conclusions. The transition from static coefficient analysis to dynamic, multidimensional assessment is a prerequisite for the sustainable development of the extractive sector. The proposed model can be used by investors, regulators, and company management for strategic planning, risk management, and investment attraction.