Factors of successful public offering (IPO) in conditions of geopolitical instability: Russian and international context

Subject. Factors of IPO effectiveness in conditions of instability. Objectives. Study of IPO dynamics in conditions of geopolitical instability and development of an approach to identifying success factors taking into account Russian and international specifics. Methods. A systems approach was used, employing comparative, statistical, and investment analysis. The empirical base includes data from open sources and specialized platforms. Regression models were used to test the hypotheses. Results. Post-IPO success depends on macroeconomic and structural factors; the most significant influence comes from the size of the deal and the issuer, the industry, market conditions, and the total number of offerings in the market. For the Russian market, it has been established that the changes in demand structure and pricing practices after February 2022 had a positive impact on stock profitability during the year following the IPO. Conclusions and Relevance. In conditions of geopolitical instability, the effectiveness of an IPO is influenced by the placement volume, capitalization, involvement in the IT sector, price position within the range, number of IPOs, and market condition a year later. Significant previously overlooked factors have been identified: the calendar density of IPOs (both markets), placement before and after February 2022 (Russia), price positions, and the nonlinear beta effect (foreign markets). The results can be used to assess the investment attractiveness of an IPO and allow investors to more carefully select stocks for building an investment portfolio.