Forecasting of defects causing traffic accidents using time series analysis methods

Traffic accidents can cause millions of people to lose their lives, get injured and lose money every year. Many factors can be mentioned in the occurrence of traffic accidents that have such a big impact. The analysis of these factors and taking steps for the future are great importance in terms of transportation safety. In this study, the defects that cause traffic accidents were examined in five categories. Using time series analysis models, a forecast was made for the values of the defects until 2030. The study concluded that there would be an increase in driver defects which have the highest rate in the occurrence of traffic accidents and in road defect values, while pedestrian and passenger defect values would remain stable, and there would be a decrease in road defect values. Considering the findings obtained, suggestions were presented for all stakeholders creating traffic according to the vision zero understanding.