Summary of the Second AIAA Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem for Aerodynamics

In early 2025, the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Technical Committee Uncertainty Quantification Discussion Group announced its second community Challenge Problem. Similar to the first Challenge Problem in 2024, the second Challenge Problem tasks participants with applying methods in verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification towards the analysis of airfoil simulations using a common panel method code; however, unlike the first Challenge Problem, the second Challenge Problem emphasizes the quantification of model form uncertainty and the interpolation and/or extrapolation thereof. In this summary paper, a brief overview of the second Challenge Problem is presented. A short description of each method (provided by participants) used to solve the Challenge Problem is also included. The participant results are compared. Nine different teams using ten different approaches participated; overall the predictions are all fairly comparable, showing that the field has reached some level of maturity.