Modeling Safety-Zone Interactions and Resource Access in Lunar South-Pole PSRs

As international interest in lunar activity accelerates, the governance of resource-rich regions near the Moon’s south pole, the destination for the majority of lunar surface missions, is a matter of growing urgency. This paper discusses the role of safety zones, or marked buffer areas that separate lunar activities from one another, in the efficient use of lunar resources. To inform this work, this study draws on principles from relevant policy and legal frameworks, including the U.S.-led Artemis Accords and the United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty and Convention on the Law of the Sea, to develop a multi-stakeholder model of lunar resource utilization. This model simulates interactions among multiple lunar stakeholders and explores the impact of the radial magnitude of the safety zone and the choice of various mining sites on continued access to critical resources. When applied to a scenario in which two stakeholders attempt to utilize the same crater, the model indicates that safety zones with radii ranging from 1 to 5 kilometers maximize usable mining area available to each actor while avoiding overlapping utilization. Safety zone sizes in this range are sufficient to limit both interference and stakeholders’ claims of exclusive access, while also retaining sufficient access to valuable Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs). However, the analysis also indicates that resource accessibility is maximized when actors are assigned to entirely distinct craters, such as Shackleton and Haworth. Another use case of the model highlights an ominous dynamic: actors who arrive one to two years ahead of a competitor can render large regions unusable to their competitor under a safety zone framework by making early claims. Thus, strategic occupation may drive out competition and inadvertently fuel geopolitical tensions.