Decision-Driven Scenario Generation for Zero-Impact Aviation: A Multi-Stakeholder Collaborative Framework

The aviation industry significantly supports global economic growth and connectivity, but its rising greenhouse gas emissions pose critical environmental challenges. With air travel projected to reach 10 billion passengers by 2050, emissions could escalate to 2000 megatons of CO2 without intervention. Achieving net-zero emissions demands coordinated advancements in aircraft technologies, sustainable energy, operational practices, and policy frameworks. This study explores the complex interdependencies among aviation stakeholders, including airlines, airports, energy producers, technology developers, OEMs, and policymakers, highlighting how collaborative and strategically timed investment decisions impact emission reduction pathways. Scenario-based simulations demonstrate the necessity of integrated planning, synchronized infrastructure and technological developments, and proactive management of uncertainties to successfully decarbonize aviation.