Future Scenario Development Framework for Novel 2050 Transport Aircraft

An approach to construct future scenarios that provide market, technology, and regulatory context for the design and operation of aircraft in the year 2050 is introduced and demonstrated through three examples. The value of defining scenarios lies in the understanding that progress in aircraft technology is not an isolated phenomenon, and that future aircraft cannot be defined without consideration of the world in which they will draw technology from and operate in. The scenario definition approach begins with a market development framework that defines interactions between 15 driving metrics of the air transportation sector and broader world market including technological trends, economic conditions, infrastructure evolution, regulatory landscapes, and political dynamics. By systematically varying the four macroeconomic metrics of this framework, a tradespace of 192 economic world states was defined. Through 20 interviews with industry, academic, and government experts, scenarios were defined in a subset of the economic world states based upon their anticipated feasibility, probability of occurrence, and influence on aircraft design. Five scenario groups, reflecting clusters of similar scenarios, were evaluated by a board of experts and down selected to three final scenarios to inform the development of novel transport aircraft designed to enter service in 2050. The final three scenarios are not meant to capture the "most likely" future states of the world, but rather encompass a diverse spectrum of plausible futures to reveal the range of uncertain conditions in which novel aircraft may be designed and operate.