Application of EEA to Test Policy Robustness for Orbital Debris Count Containment Using MOCAT-SSEM

In space servicing, assembly, and manufacture (ISAM) describes the set of capabilities and functional basis for being able to modify existing assets, combining on-orbit assets, or creating new assets from raw materials. Given the growing number of satellites in orbit, launches to deploy and replenish them, as well as growing concern around orbital debris, policies are now acknowledging a need to mitigate these risks through achieving sustainability in the space domain. To contribute toward the challenge of creating a sustainable ISAM ecosystem in LEO, this paper conducts an anticipatory analysis utilizing Epoch-Era Analysis (EEA) and the MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool (MOCAT) to investigate potential policy and technology interventions that could prevent unacceptable levels of orbital debris in LEO. The findings highlight key uncertainties and provide example policy interventions that could affect ISAM sustainability in the face of a growing debris environment.