Optimizing Science Return From 2024 YR4 Through Conditional Mission Architectures

The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has drawn scientific interest due to its Earth-crossing orbit and a close approach scheduled for December 2032. Although the probability of Earth impact has been ruled out, a 4.3% chance of lunar impact remains. With an estimated diameter of 60 ± 7 meters and a likely S-type composition, 2024 YR4 presents a unique opportunity for planetary science and asteroid deflection studies. This work explores mission concepts tailored to four possible 2032 trajectories: lunar impact, near-lunar flyby, or distant pass. A Science Traceability Matrix (STM) guides the identification of measurement goals and required instrumentation. Preliminary orbital dynamics, mission operations, and spacecraft subsystem requirements are analyzed to develop preliminary mission architectures. In the upcoming months, we will weigh the concepts by scientific return in accordance with the goals prioritized in decadal surveys, aiming to inform mission planning ahead of the asteroid’s 2028 flyby, when final trajectory data will become available. The ultimate goal is to enable a scientifically optimized and timely mission should funding become available right after the 2028 flyby.