Demand and Economic Potential for Battery-Electric Regional Air Mobility in Germany

The introduction of battery-electric aircraft enables the development of regional air mobility route networks that connect decentralized airfields, allowing for fast and sustainable travel. This study assesses the demand and economic potential of regional air mobility in Germany for the year 2040, considering both domestic and cross-border flights. A multinomial logit model is estimated separately for business and non-business travelers based on door-to-door travel times and monetary costs for car, train, and commercial air transport. An incremental logit approach is used to predict the demand for regional air mobility, using the VÆRIDION Microliner as a battery-electric reference aircraft. The regional air mobility demand is evaluated for various Revenue per Available Seat-kilometer (RASK) values, ranging from 0.30 to 0.80 EUR/seat-km. For every increase of 0.1 EUR/seat-km, the number of predicted regional air mobility travelers decreases between 13% and 19%, the number of connected airfields by 3% to 5%, and the number of routes by 9% to 13%. The revenue generated from the network peaks at 5.61 BEUR and varies below 1% for a revenue per available seat-kilometer between 0.5 and 0.8 EUR/seat-km. Furthermore, the effect of flying fastest cruise speed versus energy-efficient cruise speed was investigated. As the energy-efficient cruise speed decreases revenue by 19% to 23%, the results show that demand is significantly more sensitive to flight speed than revenue per available seat-kilometer. Furthermore, it is shown that non-business travelers account for over 50% of the total demand, contradicting the notion that regional air mobility is a mode of transport primarily for business travelers.