Examining the Effect of Specific Macroeconomic Determinants on Housing Prices Using the ARDL Bound Test Approach: The Case of the TR3 Region

The housing price index is one of the key economic indicators reflecting changes in housing prices in a country or region. This index is of critical importance, particularly for investors and financial institutions, in making short- and long-term investment decisions. Various macroeconomic variables affect the housing price index. Therefore, examining the effects of macroeconomic factors on the housing price index is of great importance. In this study, using data from the period 2020:4–2024:12, the effects of macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index (CPI) and the industrial production index (IPI) on the TR3 region housing price index (HPI3) were analyzed using the ARDL bounds test method. According to the long-term analysis results, the CPI variable has a negative effect on HPI3 at a 10% significance level, and a 1% increase in CPI reduces HPI3 by 0.49%. The IPI was found to have a positive effect on the HPI3 at the 5% significance level, with a 1% increase in the IPI increasing the HPI3 by 7.98%. The error correction coefficient was calculated as -0.17, indicating that short-term imbalances will return to long-term equilibrium within approximately 6 months. In the short-term analysis, the current, one-period, and three-period lagged values of CPI were found to have positive and significant effects on HPI3. These findings reveal that inflation may have a positive effect on housing prices in the short term.