Uncertainty and Emissions in Oil and Gas Field Development Planning – Balancing Between Profitability and Environmental Responsibility

Abstract There is unanimous agreement across all forecasts that oil and gas play a crucial role in the transition from a fossil-fuel dominated energy system to a cleaner, more sustainable future. In the meantime, it is essential to minimize the environmental footprint of oil and gas production operations, driving major international, national, and service companies to adopt net-zero strategies. Nevertheless, defining a field development plan that maximizes economic value while minimizing environmental impact remains a key challenge in the industry. This work proposes a framework that systematically explores the multidimensional space of decision variables, along with the uncertainty in the various elements of the production system, to generate multiple technically feasible scenarios. For each scenario, emission costs are estimated and integrated into a tax-credit modified net present value. Based on this, the least-emitting scenarios among the top economic performers are then selected, resulting in an optimal balance between profitability and environmental sustainability. The novel approach comprehensively screens technical potential options for developing oil and gas fields and incorporates carbon pricing mechanisms to guide low-emission, economically competitive decisions. This approach is flexible and can be applied to a wide range of fields, accommodating different emission parameters and complex field development plans. To the best of our knowledge, no other published material has previously addressed the development planning challenge from this angle.