Preparing for Future Enrollment in Public School Districts: Population Change, Births, and Mobility in the Houston MSA

The Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has experienced tremendous population growth in the past two decades. In 2005, 5.2 million people called the Houston MSA home. By 2023, the population grew to 7.5 million. That is a 44% increase in only 18 years. Despite this growth, leaders of many public school districts in the region have expressed concern about declining student enrollment. Public school enrollment in Texas was steadily growing but decreased during the pandemic and then largely recovered. However, not all districts in the Houston region have recovered. Some are still grappling with enrollment declines, and sustained decreases in enrollment mean less funding since schools are largely funded based on the number of students who attend. Enrollment decline is often attributed to declining birth rates, but that is only one part of the story. Districts must also consider mobility, as people move into and out of their boundaries. Districts must understand both changes in births and mobility patterns to make accurate and informed predictions about future enrollment and ensure that resources are allocated appropriately.