Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2026

The Griffith Asia Pacific Strategic Outlook (GAPSO) 2026 arrives at a historic inflection point: a world increasingly "unhinged" from the rules and alliances that governed the last eight decades. This is not a temporary shock, but a permanent reconfiguration driven by four accelerating transitions: the assertive "Donroe Doctrine" reshaping global security alliances and trade, the rapid deployment of generative AI, a green energy transition that makes energy affordable and undermines fossil fuel interests, and the steady emergence of a new financial order as an alternative to the US dollar dominance. For Asia-Pacific decisionmakers, adhering to old playbooks now risks sovereign and competitive vulnerabilities. Navigating this era of disequilibrium requires a shift from reactive management to "adaptive leadership"—anchoring action in regional values to secure a peaceful and prosperous future. Understandably, many decision-makers and communities continue to hope that these developments will not be permanent and cling to an old order of economy or the world. They point to the still formally operating institutions, such as the UN or the resilience in international trade despite the tariffs. Yet, to use an analogy—our institutions are like a train wagon that, after becoming unhinged from its locomotive, will continue its path for a while before it stops or takes a potentially catastrophic tumble. The world’s formal institutions, such as the United Nations or our security architecture, will continue to operate despite their active deconstruction and defunding, but they have already become increasingly directionless and powerless … and are at risk of tumbling. With an increasing trust gap in international institutions, many businesses and countries are simultaneously accelerating their efforts to develop “strategic autonomy” across energy, food, minerals, finance and defence. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pointed out at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in January 2026, this is understandable: “When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.” However, as he continues, in this scenario, small and middle powers will lose out rapidly while the hegemons lose eventually, too.