Planning frameworks and tools for secure and resilient clean energy transitions in Pacific Island Countries and Territories

Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) face unique energy planning challenges, driven by factors such as climate change vulnerability, dependence on donor financing and external technical expertise, and lack of formalised processes, capacity, and data for planning. PICTs are not on track to meet ambitious clean energy targets, and pathways to achieve security and decarbonise critical sectors remain unclear, with limited studies in the literature. This thesis explores the opportunities and challenges of achieving a secure and resilient clean energy transition in PICTs, and aims to develop resources to address existing planning gaps. First, a planning framework to identify key planning functions and risks within the PICTs context is developed through a review on planning frameworks and PICTs’ energy planning status, and iteratively refined through stakeholder engagement and case study application to Vanuatu. The framework serves an organisational role – structuring key planning processes – and a diagnostic role – helping assess the current status of energy planning. Second, an open-source multi-sectoral simulation tool – the Energy Transition Model (ETM) – is adapted to assess energy transition scenarios for the case study of Efate (Vanuatu). Working with Vanuatu’s Department of Energy and local electricity utility UNELCO, scenarios consistent with national strategies are modelled. Results provide planning insights and are assessed using security and resilience indicators representative of Vanuatu’s risk priorities. A supplementary tool is also developed to support PICTs in deploying custom ETM datasets. Third, planning tools and datasets are developed for sectoral analysis of maritime shipping, on which the region heavily depends. Trading routes are mapped to assess connectivity and a methodology is developed to derive a regional energy consumption database. This data is then used to perform bottom-up scenario modelling, exploring decarbonisation with clean fuels and efficiency measures. Critical insights on the implications of the IMO carbon levy for the region are also provided. The framework and tools developed through this PhD deliver practical outcomes that can support policymakers and energy planners in PICTs. Together, these outputs provide new data resources, methods, and insights to help regional stakeholders design robust, context-appropriate pathways for achieving a secure and resilient clean energy transition.