Projected CMIP6 temperature changes over Sudan under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for mid- and late-21st century

Understanding future temperature changes in Sudan is essential for climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning in this highly vulnerable and data-scarce region.This study evaluates robust projected changes in near-surface air temperature at both annual and seasonal scales in summer (June-September) and winter (December-February) relative to the historical baseline period (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014).Projections are provided for the mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100) under the moderate SSP2-4.5 and high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios, based on a bias-corrected ensemble of CMIP6 climate models.Bias correction was applied using Equidistant Quantile Mapping (EQM) for historical simulations and Delta Quantile Mapping (DQM) for future projections to ensure consistency with observed climatology.The results indicate pronounced, scenario-dependent warming across all seasons.By mid-century, annual mean temperatures are projected to rise by 1.68°C under SSP2-4.5 and 2.17°C under SSP5-8.5,reaching 2.68°C and 4.87°C, respectively, by late-century.Seasonal analysis reveals the most intense and variable warming during summer, while winter exhibits more stable increases with narrower inter-model uncertainties.Spatially, northern and central Sudan are expected to experience the strongest warming, with high inter-model agreement.These findings underscore escalating heat-stress risks and highlight the urgent need for emissions mitigation and targeted adaptation strategies to support climate-resilient planning and sustainable development in Sudan.