Managing Organizational Risks in Russia’s Oil and Gas Enterprises Based on Expert Assessment

The Comprehensive Security System (CSS) is designed to prevent the emergence and development of risks – technical, organizational-technical, and purely organizational – at enterprises within Russia’s oil and gas sector. This study focuses on reducing losses by assessing and managing organizational risks that arise from insufficient actions or shortcomings on the part of personnel responsible for ensuring the effective operation of the CSS. The aim of the research is to identify an approach that makes it possible to convert qualitative indicators of organizational risks into quantitative terms (a measurable negative impact). In the course of the study, the author substantiates the use of an expert-based method (priority ranking) to evaluate risks associated with inadequate actions by management bodies that oversee subordinate personnel. This method has advantages and introduces elements of novelty compared with current solutions used in practice. When applied together with the functionality of the Gaussian probability distribution, it allows experts to determine specific safety areas in which organizational risks arise due to insufficient control measures. In real organizational systems, having reliable information with weighted values for all identified risks makes it possible to construct a ranked list, determine priorities, and develop a set of preventive measures. The article provides an example illustrating how personnel in various safety areas influence the overall state of the CSS, and it justifies the feasibility of applying the priority-ranking method in practice to obtain quantitative results for organizational risks.