Assessment of the Sustainability of Urban Transport System Management Based on Structural-Synergetic Modeling

The transport complex, which ensures the vital functioning of territories and settlements across the country, requires new analytical tools capable of supporting managerial decision-making under conditions of decentralized governance and the influence of demographic, institutional, and natural–climatic constraints. The relevance of this study is determined by the importance of sustainable development in Arctic cities and urban agglomerations as strategic territories that ensure national security and socio-economic resilience. The purpose of this research is to model the dynamic structure of economic subprocesses within the public transport subsystem of an urban or metropolitan transport system in order to assess its performance and identify deviations from the trajectory of sustainable development. The study employs a structural–synergetic modeling method, which allows for both quantitative and qualitative evaluation of interdependencies in complex urban transport systems. Using the example of Murmansk over the period 2013–2022, models were developed to reflect the annual changes in the structure of the city’s public transport functioning. This structure includes four types of subprocesses: core, auxiliary, life-supporting, and development-constraining. The study resulted in an assessment of the impact of decentralized decisions made by key stakeholders on the sustainability of Murmansk’s public transport system, as well as the identification of the nature and direction of synergetic effects. Directions for further modernization of the methodology and techniques of structural modeling are proposed, focusing on the improvement of statistical accounting for relevant indicators. The developed approaches can serve as diagnostic and monitoring tools for assessing the sustainability of transport systems in Arctic regions. The results obtained are of practical interest to federal, regional, and municipal authorities, analytical centers, and infrastructure companies involved in the implementation of sustainable transport and urban mobility policies.