Geoinformation modeling of spring-thaw soil erosion in the subtaiga zone of Western Siberia based on USLE

The article presents research on the creation of a geoinformation model of spring-thaw erosion of arable soils based on the universal soil loss equation of Wischmeier and Smith (USLE) and testing its quality and accuracy in the conditions of the subtaiga zone of Western Siberia. The erosive capacity factor of precipitation R is calculated on the basis of a geoinformation model of snow cover, which includes information on water reserves in snow, features of snow deposition on slopes of different exposures, and characteristics of the snowmelt period. The amount of liquid precipitation that fell during the snowmelt period was also taken into account. Modeling was performed using QGIS, GRASS, and SAGA. The quality of the model was assessed using generally accepted indicators: Spearman's correlation coefficient r , the coefficient of determination R 2 , the mean relative error (MRE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean squared error (MSE). The model convergence with the fact was assessed using the linear-weighted kappa (k) statistic in outwash volume classes calculated using the Jenks natural breaks method. The actual outwash was determined using the method of recording the flow erosion in 2014–2023. The accuracy of the USLE model under target conditions is not lower than that described in the world literature. The model error averages 44% over 10 years. The best model performance was achieved on southern slopes with minimal gullies and minimal moisture. Average 10-year model quality indicators: for southern slopes – r = 0,76…0,92, R 2 = 0,29…0,81, MRE = 0,39…0,64, MAE = 0,16…0,93, MSE = 0,07…2,66, k = 0,66…0,91; for northern slopes – r = 0,57…0,79, R 2 = 0,27…0,60, MRE = 0,43…0,45, MAE = 0,20…0,47, MSE = 0,13…1,42, k = 0,46…0,84. USLE can be used as a tool for the primary assessment of the potential for arable soil loss during spring snowmelt in the subtaiga conditions of Western Siberia when using the R -factor of snow cover characteristics and snowmelt conditions in the calculations.