Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV)

Eurosurveillance 2026 Open access

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Authors: Valentina Marziano, Alfredo De Bellis, Martina Del Manso, Antonino Bella, Alberto Mateo‐Urdiales, Carla Molina Grané, Francesco Menegale, Lorenzo Lucchini, Mattia Manica, Sobha Pilati, Daniele Mipatrini, Flavia Riccardo
+5 more Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Anna Teresa Palamara, Patrizio Pezzotti, Stefano Merler
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2026.31.22.2600425
Cited by: 1
References: 9

Abstract

We simulated the potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV) following the introduction of a single infectious individual in a generic population, based on epidemiological parameters derived from a human-to-human historical outbreak. Under current available evidence, our analyses suggest that, within 4 months from the index case's symptom onset, the expected outbreak size is unlikely to exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of epidemic extinction, particularly when > 50% cases are effectively isolated from the start of the outbreak.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Viral Infections and Vectors Mosquito-borne diseases and control Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

Publication details

Journal / source
Eurosurveillance
Publisher
European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
Volume
31
Issue
22
Publication date
4 June 2026
Language
EN