Modelling and Projecting Mortality of the Elderly Population: Comparison of Classical and Coherent Models

Mortality projection is essential for population forecasts and actuarial calculations.In most situations, projecting the mortality rates of men and women separately results in some incoherence with regard to the projected progression of male-female mortality.Therefore, coherent mortality forecasting is necessary to prevent any unrealistic convergence or divergence in this regard.In this work, we propose a mortality projection model for the Algerian population aged 50 years and over for men and women during the period 1977-2017 and compare it with the models of Lee-Carter [17], Cairns-Blake-Dowd [3], and Hyndman [16].The results show that the proposed model is the best in terms of quality of adjustment and coherence between mortality projections for men and women.