Indicadores del desarrollo humano y su incidencia en el desempleo en Ecuador

Unemployment is a problem that affects both the male and female populations of nations around the world. There are countries with higher unemployment rates, such as South Africa, which reached 32.10% in 2023, and Ecuador, where it has moderated over the last 20 years, reaching 3.5% in 2023. The objective of this work is to evaluate how human development indicators have influenced the behavior of unemployment in Ecuador for the period 1991-2023 using annual frequency statistical data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of Ecuador, and the Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). Three multiple linear regression models were estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method following the Wooldridge (2009) methodology. Through the diagnosis and validation of the results obtained, it is verified that the variables GDP per capita, HDI, average age, migration balance, and remittances have negative effects on the behavior of each type of unemployment. Likewise, it was determined that the explanatory power had an adjusted coefficient of determination between 60.7%, 55.7%, and 57.7%, respectively. Finally, it was verified that all models effectively met the main assumptions of normality, correct specification, heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and multicollinearity.